"Be fearful when others are greedy and greedy when others are fearful." ✍️ - Warren Buffett |
✅ U.S. stocks fell Friday after weaker-than-expected August jobs data, with the Dow ending the week lower. Investors are now betting on up to three Fed rate cuts by year-end as hiring slowed more than anticipated. ✅ EV Armageddon? Analyst warns of sharp U.S. EV sales drop after tax credit ends. ✅ OPEC+ expected to lift output again, but at a slower pace. ✅ Tesla shares rise as board proposes $1 trillion pay package for Elon Musk. ✅ Broadcom shares surge on strong earnings and $10 billion mystery AI order. ✅ Gold near record levels as weaker jobs data and Fed concerns boost demand. |
↘ Dow 45,400.86 - 0.48%
↘ Nasdaq 21,700.39 - 0.034%
↘ S&P 6,481.50 - 0.32% |
EV Armageddon? Analyst Warns of Sharp Sales Drop After Tax Credit Ends |
Image courtesy of trendsresearch.org |
Tesla, GM and Ford could face a major setback in U.S. EV sales when federal tax credits expire at the end of September under President Trump’s “One Big Beautiful Bill Act.” iSeeCars analyst Karl Brauer told Yahoo Finance he expects sales to plunge as much as 50%, with EV market share potentially falling from August’s record 9.1% to below 4% by early 2026. August sales surged 20% year over year as buyers rushed to lock in incentives, with GM posting a record 21,000 EV deliveries across its brands. GM North America SVP Duncan Aldred said a smaller market is likely after the credit ends but believes GM can still grow share. Brauer sees automakers cutting margins with discounts to keep demand going. His forecast is more pessimistic than a UC Berkeley study projecting a 27% drop without credits. With rising rates, high vehicle prices and more hybrid competition, the industry may be in for a rough landing once the incentive disappears. |
OPEC+ Expected to Lift Output Again, but at a Slower Pace |
Image courtesy of Shutterstock.com |
OPEC+ is preparing to raise oil production again starting in October but at a more modest pace than recent months, according to people familiar with the talks. The producer group — made up of OPEC members, Russia and other allies — meets online Sunday to finalize the plan. Since April, OPEC+ has reversed deep supply cuts, boosting quotas by about 2.5 million barrels per day (roughly 2.4% of world demand) to regain market share and under pressure from the U.S. to ease prices. Even so, Brent crude is still trading around $65.50 a barrel, well above April’s low near $58, supported by sanctions on Russia and Iran that have tightened global supply. Sources say the group has agreed in principle to add at least 135,000 barrels per day from October, with some suggesting the increase could be 200,000–350,000 bpd. At its August meeting OPEC+ raised output by 547,000 bpd for September. Any fresh boost would start unwinding a separate 1.65 million-bpd cut more than a year ahead of schedule. Recent hikes have also fallen short of pledges as many members pump near capacity, leaving Saudi Arabia and the UAE as the main sources of extra supply. How much the bloc ultimately adds will signal whether it expects demand to stay resilient after the summer driving season or is trying to defend market share in a cooling global economy. |
Tesla Shares Rise as Board Proposes $1 Trillion Pay Package for Elon Musk |
Image courtesy of REUTERS/Dado Ruvic |
Tesla (TSLA) shares surged on Friday after the electric-vehicle maker unveiled a staggering new compensation plan for CEO Elon Musk. Filed with the Securities and Exchange Commission, the proposal could award Musk roughly $1 trillion if he meets a series of ambitious performance milestones over the next decade. Under the plan, Musk would be eligible for the massive payout if Tesla’s market capitalization reaches an unprecedented $8.5 trillion and if the company successfully deploys one million of its anticipated “Robotaxis” into commercial operation. The plan also includes additional milestones tied to financial performance and product execution, reflecting Tesla’s goal of cementing its leadership in the global transition toward electric and autonomous vehicles. If all targets are met, Musk would receive 423 million shares of Tesla common stock — about 12% of the company’s current shares outstanding — increasing his voting power to roughly 25%. This enhanced control would give Musk even greater influence over Tesla’s strategic direction at a pivotal moment in the company’s evolution. Wedbush Securities analyst Dan Ives noted that the voting-power component is “critical to keep Musk at the helm to lead Tesla through the most critical time in the company’s history.” He added, “We believe this was the smart move by the Board, as the biggest asset for Tesla is Musk… This is a crucial time for Tesla, with autonomous technology and robotics front and center.” Investor enthusiasm for the plan was reflected in the intraday stock performance, with many seeing the package as a way to incentivize Musk to focus on Tesla’s core business while accelerating initiatives such as AI-driven mobility and large-scale production of next-generation vehicles. However, some analysts warned that the enormous award raises governance concerns and the potential for shareholder dilution, especially as competition from both legacy automakers and new EV entrants intensifies. |
Broadcom Shares Surge on Strong Earnings and $10 Billion Mystery AI Order |
Image courtesy of REUTERS/Dado Ruvic |
Broadcom (AVGO) shares jumped Thursday after the semiconductor giant beat third-quarter earnings and revenue estimates and announced a $10 billion order from an unnamed AI customer. Adjusted EPS came in at $1.69 versus the $1.65 consensus, while revenue rose 22% year-over-year to $15.96 billion, topping expectations. CEO Hock Tan confirmed the order involves custom AI processors (XPUs) and will drive shipments starting in 2026. Broadcom’s AI revenue jumped 63% to $5.2 billion in Q3, with semiconductor solutions and infrastructure software also showing strong gains. The results highlight Broadcom’s growing role in the AI chip market alongside Nvidia, and the mystery customer has fueled speculation, sending shares higher. |
Gold Near Record Levels as Weaker Jobs Data and Fed Concerns Boost Demand |
Image courtesy of treasury.id |
Gold (GC=F) extended its rally for a third consecutive week, hitting a record this week of $3,578.51. The precious metal has been supported by weaker-than-expected U.S. labor market data and growing concerns over the Federal Reserve’s independence, driving strong investor demand for safe-haven assets. The spike followed reports of declining U.S. job openings and rising jobless claims, fueling expectations that the Fed could cut rates at its September meeting. Lower interest rates typically make non-yielding assets like gold more attractive, while falling Treasury yields have reinforced bullion’s appeal. Investors are now eyeing Friday’s payrolls report, which could extend the slowest stretch of job growth since the pandemic. Gold has gained over a third year-to-date, making it one of 2025’s top-performing commodities. Analysts say its resilience reflects both traditional safe-haven buying and growing expectations that U.S. monetary policy may shift. Geopolitical risks, economic uncertainty, and disruptions to global trade — combined with President Trump’s public pressure on the Fed — have amplified concerns about central bank independence, keeping demand for gold elevated. Despite technical indicators showing short-term overbought conditions, the metal continues to attract investors seeking protection against economic volatility and policy uncertainty. |
📉 ON THE MOVE AND NOTABLES 📈 |
✔️ Oil prices fell on Friday as weaker U.S. jobs data dimmed energy demand outlook, while swelling supplies may grow further after OPEC+ and allied producers meet over the weekend. Brent crude futures settled at $65.50 per barrel, down $1.49 (2.22%), and U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude finished at $61.87, down $1.61 (2.54%). ✔️ Gold futures (/GC) traded above $3,600 per ounce on Thursday, near an all-time high of $3,578.51, up sharply from recent lows below $3,400 amid growing fiscal concerns, U.S. tariff uncertainty, and bets on a Federal Reserve rate cut. Gold is up nearly 40% year-to-date. ✔️ The U.S. economy added just 22,000 jobs in August versus forecasts for 75,000, while the unemployment rate ticked up to 4.3% from 4.2%. June nonfarm payrolls were revised down by 27,000, and July was revised up by 6,000. ✔️ CME Group odds of a September rate cut jumped to nearly 100% after the report, reflecting market expectations of up to three Federal Reserve cuts by year-end. Analysts caution that the S&P 500 must hold above 6,400 to sustain its recent rally. ✔️ The average 30-year fixed mortgage rate dropped 16 basis points to 6.29%, down from May’s peak of 7.08%, boosting homebuilder stocks including Lennar, DR Horton, and Pulte. Two-year Treasury yields fell to a three-year low, while the 10-year slipped to 4.07%. The dollar weakened, fueling a “bad news is good news” reaction among investors. ✔️ DocuSign (DOCU) rose after reporting an earnings beat and raising its revenue outlook. ✔️ Lululemon (LULU) slumped after cutting annual profit and sales forecasts. Broadcom (AVGO) jumped after beating earnings and revealing it is designing an AI chip with OpenAI. ✔️ Alphabet (GOOG) extended its rally toward a $3 trillion market cap. ✔️ Tesla (TSLA) proposed a $1 trillion CEO pay package tied to ambitious performance targets that could lift Elon Musk’s stake to 25%. ✔️ Bitcoin futures (/BTC) gained 2.4%, testing support near $110,000. ✔️ Kenvue (KVUE) fell after a Wall Street Journal report linked Tylenol to autism. ✔️ Quanex Building Products (NX) dropped 13% following weaker-than-expected Q3 earnings and lowered FY guidance. ✔️ Campbell’s (CPB) rose after its quarterly report, bringing week-to-date gains to nearly 6% despite being down 19% YTD. ✔️ Caleres (CAL) surged after mixed Q2 results, rebounding from a 5% drop on Thursday. |
💲What to Watch This Week 💲 |
Apple is expected to unveil the iPhone 17 on Tuesday. That same day brings earnings from Oracle, AeroVironment and GameStop. Next week also brings two closely watched inflation readings: the Producer Price Index on Wednesday and the Consumer Price Index on Thursday. On Thursday, Kroger and Adobe report results. There could be possible tariff news on Friday—potentially the long-anticipated duties on semiconductor imports—which has been an overhang on Wall Street for weeks. 🟢 Economic: Monday (9/8): Consumer Credit Tuesday (9/9): NFIB Small Business Optimism Wednesday (9/10): MBA Mortgage Applications Index, Producer Price Index (PPI), Core PPI, Wholesale Inventories Thursday (9/11): Continuing Claims, Initial Claims, Consumer Price Index (CPI), Core CPI Friday (9/12): U of M Consumer Sentiment, Current Conditions, 1yr Inflation, 5-10 yr Inflation 🟢 Earnings: Monday (Sep. 8): Caseys General Stores Inc. (CASY) Tuesday (Sep. 9): Core & Main Inc. (CNM), Sailpoint Inc. (SAIL), Oracle Corp. (ORCL), Synopsis Inc. (SNPS), Rubrik Inc (RBRK), GameStop Corp. (GME) Wednesday (Sep. 10): Chewy Inc. (CHWY), Manchester United PLC (MANU) Thursday (Sep. 11): Kroger Co. (KR), Adobe Inc. (ADBE), RH (RH) Friday (Sep. 12): None |
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